(I’m blogging about a wider variety of topics here. Why? Because I have thoughts, important thoughts that pulse like futuristic land mines in my cerebral topsoil, and I want the legs of your perception blown off by them.)
(For those of you who read my blog but don’t me personally - movie stars, exiled chamberlains, stockbrokers, circus acrobats, hiphop producers, caravan guides, mutant subhumans, defrocked monks - you should know that I live and work in Mokpo, South Korea. So I will write about South Korea more often than, say, a resident of Suriname would.)
(Suriname has an interesting history.)
I read the news and a variety of Korean blogs every morning while I eat my breakfast, just after my daily regimen of three thousand sit-ups, and I’ve noticed that North Korea’s been making an awful lot of noise lately. First they tested a nuke - okay, no big deal, they’ve done that before.
They followed this up by declaring that the truce ending the Korean War is “off” and that they would no longer be able to “guarantee the safety” of SK and US ships in or around their waters. (I love that phrasing. It implies they’re hard at work rescuing shipwrecked American sailors, or fighting off sharks or pirates. Their actual track record is not so fun.)
Then the ruthless murder of local fish populations via short and mid-range missiles, Kim Jong-Il accusing the US of preparing an invasion, and we have quite the exciting week. But I’m not worried, and it’s for reasons beside my personal radiation-born invulnerability.
The North Korean military leaders live on an elaborate fiction; their power depends on them never actually exercising it. Yes, they have the fourth biggest army in the world (behind China, US, and India), and definitely the largest per capita; almost one in ten Norks bear arms. Yes, their soldiers are fanatically eager to drown us capitalist pig-dogs in their blood, smother us with their corpses, etc. If you’ve seen their military parades, then you probably get the same chill as from a Nazi rally. These guys are seriously scary.
But they won’t attack. Kim Jong-Il and his inner circle have it too good. They have the run of their shitty little country, with its terrible weather and its appalling concentration camps and its persimmons and its total dearth of culture or human warmth; they have money, power, wine, women. I can’t remember on which blog I read this, but someone pointed out that the US and SK know the locations of their mansions and holiday resorts, and they know we know it, and the Norks know the accuracy of US-made cruise missiles. Serious aggression would meet with instant and devastating retaliation. The North would find itself in a war they could not win, with an increasingly pissed off populace; the only way the military could hope to retain its power would be to take KJI out of office via a coup (which would have even messier repercussions down the line, but in the meantime might be the best thing for the country).
My point is, once the North Korean military is put to use, it would spell the end of the regime. The wild card is whether the generals and KJI are smart enough, or sane enough, to understand this. That they haven’t attacked yet implies so.
(Why wouldn’t they win, especially when they almost stomped the South fifty years ago? Many, many reasons, but quickly:
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Now we’re ready for them. Last time, they attacked by surprise, when most of SK’s soldiers were on vacation, and the US had little presence at all. Now the US has 28,000 soldiers here [and 60,000 more in Japan], and the South has 650,000. They are well trained and ready for action.
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They don’t have the resources to sustain a campaign. They don’t have the fuel or ammunition or funds for any kind of prolonged action.
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Their military - the soldiers have poor training, poor equipment, and very, very little experience. SK soldiers have fought in Iraq, Afghanistan, off the shores of Somalia, and trained extensively with US forces. And US forces, without any sort of patriotic exaggeration, are really, quite seriously, among the best in the world. We’re losing the Iraq war and lost Vietnam because those are asymmetric conflicts. Against NK, it would be a brutal and speedy conflict.
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Their allies - Russia isn’t Communist any more, and China barely is. The Chinese turned the tide of the last war, but now their commercial relationships with SK and the US are worth much more to them than any idealistic ties to the North. Neither of these states is truly Communist, and they’ve got nothing in common beyond the nominal level. China was quite embarassed by the last nuke test.)
So why the noise? I think KJI’s dying. It’s almost certain that he suffered a stroke last fall, and recent pictures do not have him looking good. Compare his tubby old self to his now jowly, grey-haired corpus, and it’s plain to see that he is not in good health. The most recent batch of PR photos from the North show him at the dedication of a swimming pool; he’s barely propping himself up with the poolside ladder. It’s sad. So he concocts a misdirection, he rattles his sabres to get the attention away from his obviously failing health, he makes noise. His ships lob a few shells at some empty patches of ocean, his artillery splinters a few South Korean trees, and he can tell his people how he repelled the imperialists, and chase away the generals and heirs hovering vulturelike over his bedside, for another day.
I’m not 100% certain that KJI’s death will be the best thing for NK - as Saddam’s downfall showed us, a stable tyranny is desirable compared to anarchy - but it certainly would be a good thing.
What’s the danger? If KJI truly lost his mind and launched a full-scale attack, and the generals did not remove him from power, then all he could do would be to hammer the South with short-range conventional cruise missiles while stacking up North Korean bodies along the DMZ. Naval and air attacks would be repulsed with almost no damage to SK and US forces; their ships and planes are simply too outdated, and the crews untrained; they don’t have enough fuel to train their pilots. A ground assault would cause a good amount of destruction, with his million suicide troops, but the allies would hold them at the DMZ. They would certainly never make it as far as Seoul.
There would be instant diplomatic pressure from not only the UN et al, but also from their “allies” China and Russia. (The quotes indicate nominal allies - they don’t have any kind of mutual protection pact, because China and Russia aren’t batshit insane.) There would be fighter-bombers blowing holes in Pyeongyang 24/7, as well as cruise missiles from US and SK battleships pounding their military installations. It would be the end of the country as a sovereign entity. The best NK could hope for would be a lot of South Koreans dead from cruise missiles and along the DMZ.
Something like this might happen, regardless, if NK keeps rattling that sabre. Lee Myung-bak (South Korea’s George W. Bush) is pissed off right now. He’s never been known for his patience with the North, and he has something of a domestic crisis with former President Roh’s recent, awful suicide. A little shock and awe might direct public attention away from his own dire unpopularity, as well as make him feel better. Neo-cons aren’t known for their forebearance with dictators.
I don’t want a war, even a quick, victorious one. I just want some missiles to explode a few unpopulated mountains and bits of ocean so the government will get scared and close schools for a week, and I can stay home and play video games.
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