A Reasonable Future
June 30th, 2009Just finished Robert J. Sawyer’s Flashforward, which shows us two interpretations of the near future - one, only ten years in the future, that is, 2009; the other in 2030. One of the fun things about the book was his conservative guesses as to what future-tech might look like. No cybernetics or energy-based sex here.
In 2009:
- Someone is using “Windows 2009″. There is indeed a new Windows coming out in 2009, but it’ll be called Windows 7. Close enough.
- Genetically engineered grapes that stay fresh without refrigeration. I don’t believe we have these, or any such fruits or vegetables. France has long ago produced milk that stays fresh without refrigeration. Too bad it tastes like assssss.
- Most interesting: in a major bookstore, only a few of the titles are actually printed books, and these are by guaranteed bestsellers (King, Grisham, etc.). The rest are just placeholder cards with a description of the book; you order the book, and it’s printed and bound on the spot, in about fifteen minutes. Meanwhile, enjoy Starbucks coffee! Of course, in 1999, when the book came out, the coffee/book synthesis was while underway, but print-on-demand was just getting started and still very tied to the vanity press. I remember reading a few years ago about machines like this - they’ve been invented, but yet to be placed in stores. The repercussions in the publishing industry would be - enormous.
The article I read envisioned these machines being placed in coffee shops. There’s a touchscreen on top. You order a book, pay for it with your card, and while it prints, order your coffee. The article described them as slightly larger than a Xerox machine. You could have a million books available in a coffee shop - in a mall kiosk - in a tattoo hut - a Smoothie King.
Imagine how this would shake the book industry. Bookstores would function as described in Flashforward, or not at all. Publishers would actually make money. The current model ceased to be profitable when Americans decided that TV was more important, and stopped picking up books just for something to do. Now, publishers have a print run of a few thousand. If they don’t sell, they have to buy them back from the stores, or remainder them at a Pyrrhic loss. The bookstores take almost no risk, only the possibility of lost sales due to shelf space that could’ve been taken up by something that would sell better, like Shopaholic Hangs Herself in a Closet or Shopaholic Goes to the Eight Circle of Hell.
Shelf space is in itself a precious commodity. It’s a form of advertising as well as the actual physical place where the stores keep books. How often do you go to B&N for a specific book and have to order it? With these printing machines, publishers would be able to cut out the overhead of initial print runs, which would let them take chances on new authors - a new unknown author’s book would be just as much “in stock” as a Harry Potter. Plus, without the albatross of initial print runs and having to sell all the stock, publishers would be more profitable, and might be able to pay their authors more than the miserly, miserable 10% that is standard.
Nothing would ever go out of print. You could buy every single book ever published (and electronically typeset). No more driving all over north Texas looking for a copy of Melmoth the Wander or Liber Juratus.
I hope we get such a system - it’s the convenience and availability of ebooks, but with the tangible quality of real books (which I love so much).
In 2030:
- AIDS and diabetes are cured. Cancer is not.
- India establishes a base on the moon. No one has gone any further.
- No aliens.
- Cars don’t fly, but hover about two metres off the ground (by the way, the US has finally gone metric). This is actually fairly reasonable. In theory, it takes no more energy to lift a car two metres than twenty; however, safety is usually the first concern when discussing the development of flying cars. Witness the bloodbath that is any given highway. Imagine that in three dimensions, along with the impossibility of rolling to a stop after a collision - you’d plummet to the ground in a fireball. Well, if you have a hovercar, you presumably have some sort of repulsing force that lifts the car from the ground. This could be projected from the sides as well to create a sort of “soft” force field that would gently deflect other vehicles.
The other advantage of hovercars is that the condition of roads wouldn’t matter. I read that the US can’t maintain its highways as is - factor in peak oil (highway repairs use a lot of oil - asphalt, you know) and the economic crisis, and in ten years I think we’ll see a lot of overpasses closing down for safety reasons. With hovercars, the roads can go to hell. You could even rip them up and plant grass, which they do in the book.
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